The Cryptocurrency Market Outlook: Why a ‘Vertical Swing Up’ is Unlikely
As the first quarter of 2025 comes to a close, many investors are eagerly awaiting a potential “vertical swing up” in the cryptocurrency market. However, according to Swyftx’s Lead Analyst, Pav Hundal, this outcome is unlikely. In a recent interview with Cointelegraph, Hundal cautioned that the odds of a significant market rally over the next six days are slim.
The Current State of the Market
The first quarter of 2025 has been marked by extreme volatility in the cryptocurrency market. Since the beginning of the year, both Bitcoin and Ethereum have experienced significant fluctuations in value, leaving investors wondering what’s next.
Bitcoin, the largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization, has been trading in a narrow range of $23,000 to $28,000. While it’s experienced some temporary upticks, it’s struggled to break above $30,000.
Ethereum, the second-largest cryptocurrency, has been more tumultuous. It’s undergone several major price swings, plummeting as low as $1,100 in February before recovering some losses. However, it still remains below its all-time high of $4,875.
Why a ‘Vertical Swing Up’ is Unlikely
So, what’s behind Hundal’s prediction that a “vertical swing up” is unlikely? One major factor is the current economic landscape. Global growth is slowing, and many experts are warning of an impending recession. This uncertainty is likely to keep a lid on cryptocurrency prices.
Another factor is the regulatory environment. In recent months, governments and regulatory bodies have been cracking down on cryptocurrency-related activities. For example, the Indian Supreme Court has ruled that cryptocurrency is not a legal tender, while the Turkish government has banned cryptocurrency payments.
Technical Analysis
In addition to fundamental factors, technical analysis also suggests that a “vertical swing up” is unlikely. The daily charts for both Bitcoin and Ethereum are displaying bearish patterns, such as large descending triangles and MACD crossovers.
Bitcoin’s price action has been constricted within a descending triangle, a bearish pattern that typically precedes a breakdown. The MACD, a popular technical indicator, has also crossed below its signal line, indicating a potential decline.
Ethereum’s chart is displaying a similar bearish pattern. The price has been trending downward, forming a large descending triangle that could lead to further price drops.
Short-Term Expectations
So, what can investors expect in the short-term? Based on Hundal’s prognosis, it’s likely that the cryptocurrency market will continue to experience volatility, but with a broader trend pointing downwards.
In the short-term, Bitcoin may attempt to break above $28,000, but it’s unlikely to successfully challenge the $30,000 level. Ethereum, on the other hand, may struggle to regain its lost ground, potentially dropping further towards $1,000.
Long-Term View
While a “vertical swing up” may not be in the cards, there are still reasons to be optimistic about the cryptocurrency market’s long-term prospects.
The development of blockchain technology continues to accelerate, with applications in areas such as supply chain management, decentralized finance, and non-fungible tokens (NFTs). This growth could lead to increased adoption and, subsequently, higher prices.
Additionally, institutional investors are increasingly taking notice of the cryptocurrency market, with many large companies and funds establishing allocations to cryptocurrencies. This influx of capital could help stabilize prices and drive growth.
