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Forex Market Insights: Non-Farm Payrolls Expected to Post 111,000 Job Gains on July 3, 2025

Non-Farm Payrolls: The Main Event

The monthly Non-Farm Payrolls report is one of the most closely watched economic indicators in the US, and today’s release is expected to show a boost in employment numbers. According to analysts, Non-Farm Payrolls are expected to increase by 111,000 in June, up from 151,000 in May. This would mark the eighth consecutive month of job growth above 100,000.

But what’s really important is the broader economic context. The US labor market has been experiencing a prolonged period of growth, with unemployment rates hovering around historic lows. This has led to a tightening labor market, which could potentially push wages upwards. And with inflation still a concern, a strong payrolls report could be a double-edged sword.

Swiss Inflation: A Slow Burn

In other news, Switzerland’s inflation rate ticked higher in June, rising to 1.3% from 1.2% in May. While this rate is still relatively low, it’s a sign that the Swiss economy is starting to feel the effects of global inflationary pressures.

S&P 500: A New Record High

The S&P 500 index has been on a tear lately, and yesterday it hit a new record high. This marks the 12th record high for the index in the past year, and it’s a testament to the strength of the US stock market.

What’s driving this rally? There are a few factors at play. Firstly, the US economy is still growing, albeit slowly. Secondly, US stocks are relatively cheap compared to other major markets, which has attracted international investors. And finally, the Fed’s easy money policy has kept borrowing costs low, making it easier for investors to take on risk.

Stocks: Mixed Performance

While the S&P 500 is hitting new highs, other major stock indexes are not faring as well. The Dow Jones Industrial Average and the Nasdaq Composite have been stalled, while the Russell 2000 index of small-cap stocks is actually down for the year.

This mixed performance is likely due to the heightened levels of uncertainty in the market. With the trade war between the US and China still unresolved, and the global economy facing headwinds, investors are struggling to find direction.

US Dollar Index: A Slow Recovery

Finally, the US Dollar Index has been making a slow but steady recovery over the past few weeks. This is a welcome development for dollar bulls, who have been struggling to make headway in recent months.

What’s driving this recovery? There are a few factors at play. Firstly, the Fed’s tightening monetary policy is making the dollar more attractive to investors. Secondly, the yield curve has been steepening, which is also boosting the dollar. And finally, the trade war between the US and China is having a negative impact on other currencies, which is also supporting the dollar.