| Quick Facts |
| Table of Contents |
Quick Facts
Polymarket users believe SBF is more likely to receive a presidential pardon than Ross Ulbricht.
Table of Contents
- The Unlikely Bets
- A Brief History of Pardons
- The Cases of SBF and Ulbricht
- The Polymarket Bets
- Influence and Celebrity Status
- The Dark Web and the War on Drugs
The Unlikely Bets: Why Polymarket Users Think SBF is More Likely to Get a Presidential Pardon than Ross Ulbricht
The world of politics and cryptocurrency has been in a tumultuous state since the collapse of FTX, the once-ubiquitous crypto exchange founded by Sam Bankman-Fried (SBF). As the dust settles, a peculiar trend has emerged on Polymarket, a decentralized prediction market, where users are placing bets on whether SBF will receive a presidential pardon or not. The data is shocking: while the founder of Silk Road, Ross Ulbricht, is widely considered the most notorious dark web figure, Polymarket users believe SBF is more likely to receive a pardon. In this article, we’ll delve into why this might be the case and what it says about the intersection of politics and cryptocurrency.
A Brief History of Pardons
Before we dive into the particulars of SBF’s and Ulbricht’s cases, it’s essential to understand the concept of presidential pardons. A presidential pardon is a legal tool that allows the President of the United States to forgive federal offenses, including those deemed non-pardonable by law. Theoretically, a pardon can restore civic rights, such as the right to vote and hold public office, and expunge convictions from public records. However, pardons are rarely granted and are typically reserved for high-profile cases where the President seeks to correct a perceived injustice.
The Cases of SBF and Ulbricht
SBF, the former CEO of FTX, is currently serving a 25-year sentence in prison after being charged with eight counts of fraud, including conspiracy, wire fraud, and commodities fraud. While SBF’s crimes are egregious, many observers believe that his proximity to power and influence might work in his favor. Throughout his career, SBF has cultivated an impressive network of connections in Washington D.C., including friendships with high-ranking officials and advisors. With his appeal awaiting a decision, it’s not hard to imagine that SBF’s celebrity status and connections could sway public opinion and potentially lead to a pardon.
Ross Ulbricht, on the other hand, is the founder of Silk Road, a notorious dark web marketplace that enabled illegal drug trafficking, weapons sales, and other illicit activities. Ulbricht was arrested in 2013 and subsequently sentenced to life in prison without parole. Silk Road’s sheer scale and Ulbricht’s perceived hubris have led to widespread condemnation, with many considering him a symbol of the dangers of the dark web.
The Polymarket Bets
So, why do Polymarket users believe SBF is more likely to receive a pardon than Ulbricht? The data suggests that the odds are heavily skewed in SBF’s favor. According to Polymarket, the probability of SBF receiving a pardon is currently around 35%, while Ulbricht’s odds stand at a mere 5%. This disparity has sparked heated debate among users, with some speculating that SBF’s connections and celebrity status are key factors driving the numbers.
Influence and Celebrity Status
SBF’s ascension to fame and his connections within the political and financial circles are indeed key factors driving the Polymarket bets. During his time as FTX CEO, SBF was hailed as a visionary and a genius, with his image plastered on magazine covers and television programs. His connections to high-ranking officials and Wall Street moguls have only added to his aura of invincibility. Many believe that this influence and celebrity status will ultimately sway the pardon process in SBF’s favor, even if his crimes are severe.
In contrast, Ross Ulbricht is a relatively unknown figure, and his notoriety is largely tied to his association with Silk Road. While Ulbricht’s case is extremely controversial, many argue that his involvement in illegal activities and his perceived arrogance have led to a loss of public sympathy. Without the same level of influence or celebrity status, Ulbricht’s chances of receiving a pardon appear remote.
The Dark Web and the War on Drugs
Another factor driving the disparity in Polymarket odds is the ongoing War on Drugs. Silk Road’s illegal activities, including drug trafficking, have led many to view Ulbricht as a direct contributor to the opioid epidemic and other drug-related problems. In contrast, SBF’s FTX was not directly involved in illegal activities, and his crimes are more related to financial manipulation. This distinction may make it more feasible for SBF to receive a pardon, as his actions are seen as more isolated and less detrimental to society.
